Prepare To Add To Gold Positions
Gold prices appear to heading higher. The last posting on March 24th pointed to an imminent decline and a potential low in the last week of April. The price of the yellow metal has fallen by almost 4% since that time. Chart 1 shows that May has been a reasonably strong month. And, gold tends to rise from June through September. Let us attempt to confirm this seasonal cycle with dynamic cycles.
Chart 1: Monthly Expected Return- Gold
Both the weekly and the monthly cycles are bottoming in the last week of April. All three of the monthly buy signals have led to higher prices in the past twelve months. Five of eight weekly buy signals have been successful in the last year.
Chart 2: Gold Monthly Cycle
Chart 3: Gold Weekly Cycle
The technical readings confirm the cycle lows in the next week; gold has retraced 38.2% of its August-February rally and is oversold. The gold open interest put/call ratio is reflecting excessive bearishness, which is a plus for the bulls. The first objectives are in the $1303-$1307 area.
Chart 4: Daily Gold